Archive for Jakub Neuberg

The statistics for bets and streaks

We can call statistics as the numerical summary of all those factors that are accounted for and that we have when valuing a bet. Despite what it may seem, the statistics tell us nothing about the forecasts.

The reason for this statement is that the statistics is objective, public and free, or in other words, that in this sense we are on equal terms with the oddsmakers, so that way we can not take advantage of them. Of course, statistics have multiple interpretations, but even so it is very difficult to draw value.

Statistics is not everything, it is not even important. The factors that give value to a forecast are usually subjective, difficult to guess and to get there where a tipster can reach and an oddsmaker however not. Not necessarily because its predictive capacity prevents it, but because an opinion when putting the odds can mean that incoming money is not balanced correctly. Recall once again that the objective of this employee is to ensure benefits to your company regardless of the final result.

It must be clear that statistics is nothing more than historical data. That is, the following events are not reflected in it or the figures have influence on future events. If the statistic determined the following events, there would be nothing more than resorting to it and a correct interpretation to guess predictions. In addition to that, statistics assess results of the same events, and there are never two equal events in sports. Not even two exactly equal matches between two equal teams and at the same time … in short, putting all the same factors are identical. There will always be something that differentiates them.

The streaks are consecutive results. We usually say, “he has a run of four hits, he has a three-hitting streak and ten failures …”. There is a concept that should not be confused between streaks and statistics: The laws of large numbers tell us that in the long term probability coincides with reality, but that does not mean that there are impossible events. That is to say, if we throw 10,000 times a coin, the possibility that 10,000 consecutive faces come out exists. It is extremely difficult for this to happen, but the possibility remains there. Taken to smaller numbers, which is where I want to go, people tend to overestimate the gusts. That is to say, if a team has a string of consecutive results, the longer the streak is, the more people estimate that the streak will be cut the more repeated the result of the streak. The problem is where exactly said streak is cut since each event is totally independent of the previous ones, since these do not take into account what happened in the past. Conclusion, give statistics its importance, which deserves and no more, which in general is little.

Is it a good tactic to wait for draws in sports betting?

In even matches tie is the result that pays better, this is because most teams do not skip the field thinking of a draw. Then if it is given, it is given.

The question is when to bet on the tie. If the event is a priori very uneven, we can at least tempt the tie. At the end of the day, when the match starts, our bet is succeeding. Sometimes it is very interesting to see how a team stoically endures the siege of another who has everything to take the victory but does not succeed.

Betting on the tie involves studying the statistics a little more, see which systems are used by the teams and, above all, focusing on their situation in the classification. If one of the two teams is urged, either to fight the title or to avoid the descent, the logical thing is that in the last minutes they try everything to get the victory. This can come with either the get or get undressed back and opportunities to counterattack your rival.

On the other hand, if the two teams arrive comfortable in the classification, a point may be reached in the match in which both are satisfied with the draw and they consider the same good, making a non-aggression pact in the last minutes.
Of course, it is not advisable to abuse bets on draws. After all, everyone’s goal is victory.

Compare and estimate sports betting odds

Betting Strategy

I always inform myself first in the media, before betting on a match about:

injured players
scoring in the ranking
the last matches
fluctuating or constant performances of each team
other relevant aspects (motivation)

Therefore I only bet on teams on which I can be sufficiently informed and not by a provincial team in Latvia.

Based on the key points listed above I evaluate the probability of the teams to win.
You have to practice a lot.

Then I set odds for the matches (according to the probability estimated by me) and compare my odds with the odds of my internet bookmaker. And here I bet on the teams to whom my bookmaker has given higher odds than the ones I have made.

In the meantime there are phases of loss, but in total I have obtained 1,481 Euro as a net profit, always putting the same amount of 30 Euros per game (I always bet only on individual matches, never on a combination) over the course of the last 16 months.

If you want to try it too, start by trying to put a little, if you succeed along approx. three months, then increase a little the amount put into play.

Is it possible to get rich by sports betting?

It is possible but very unlikely. Sports betting is entertainment and should be taken as such. We will have good gusts and the others. We can earn money, we can even make a daily wage, but in no way should we dedicate ourselves to this to live.

The moment we start betting because we need the money to pay the mortgage or other expenses is when we start making bad decisions. It is an entertainment, if they come better and if not at least we will have fun. They imagine being filling a resume and placing … profession: gambler.

It is unthinkable truth. Simply because, for example, being a gambler does not pay social security or health insurance. Nobody retires as a bettor. Betting is not a job and less must be taken as a way of life.
People who believe it and try to experience this path with their own lives can not sustain themselves for long. If we enter the internet we will find some cases of people who have gained fortunes with the bets. Take it for what it is, isolated cases.

Already the sport is beautiful. Witnessing an event on its own is a pleasure. If we add that we have interests in the game, the attraction increases. Bet on the sport, earn some money, feel the pleasure of being part of the event, but do not think that you will get rich.

It will simply be another entertainment.

How to start betting online?

Before starting to bet online, you have to have some basic elements that most Internet users already have.

We are talking about an internet connection and a personal email account. All bookmakers require us to register, and it is at that moment that we must provide in addition to our personal data, our email to access our account.

The next thing we need to have is a way to deposit funds into our account and a way to withdraw them. The most advisable thing is to have a credit card that is admitted in most of the bookmakers, a VISA or a MASTERCARD for example. Do not worry about the security issue. The serious bookmakers guarantee the security of your data. Electronic money (Netseller, Paypal, Mooneybrokes, etc.) is another alternative, but not all bookies accept it.

Once these minimum requirements have been met, it is advisable that the bettor be able to read previously some experiences of other gamblers. In this way you can understand the mechanism, which is fair to say is not far from the bets in physical agencies.

It is recommended to start cautiously, get the most out of the welcome bonus and become familiar with the issue of dues and dividends. While you learn on the fly, the more informed we are, the more we will reduce the margin of error.

The last valuable advice is to learn to be receptive. Listen to recommendations from other gamblers and at least ponder their advice.