We can call statistics as the numerical summary of all those factors that are accounted for and that we have when valuing a bet. Despite what it may seem, the statistics tell us nothing about the forecasts.
The reason for this statement is that the statistics is objective, public and free, or in other words, that in this sense we are on equal terms with the oddsmakers, so that way we can not take advantage of them. Of course, statistics have multiple interpretations, but even so it is very difficult to draw value.
Statistics is not everything, it is not even important. The factors that give value to a forecast are usually subjective, difficult to guess and to get there where a tipster can reach and an oddsmaker however not. Not necessarily because its predictive capacity prevents it, but because an opinion when putting the odds can mean that incoming money is not balanced correctly. Recall once again that the objective of this employee is to ensure benefits to your company regardless of the final result.
It must be clear that statistics is nothing more than historical data. That is, the following events are not reflected in it or the figures have influence on future events. If the statistic determined the following events, there would be nothing more than resorting to it and a correct interpretation to guess predictions. In addition to that, statistics assess results of the same events, and there are never two equal events in sports. Not even two exactly equal matches between two equal teams and at the same time … in short, putting all the same factors are identical. There will always be something that differentiates them.
The streaks are consecutive results. We usually say, “he has a run of four hits, he has a three-hitting streak and ten failures …”. There is a concept that should not be confused between streaks and statistics: The laws of large numbers tell us that in the long term probability coincides with reality, but that does not mean that there are impossible events. That is to say, if we throw 10,000 times a coin, the possibility that 10,000 consecutive faces come out exists. It is extremely difficult for this to happen, but the possibility remains there. Taken to smaller numbers, which is where I want to go, people tend to overestimate the gusts. That is to say, if a team has a string of consecutive results, the longer the streak is, the more people estimate that the streak will be cut the more repeated the result of the streak. The problem is where exactly said streak is cut since each event is totally independent of the previous ones, since these do not take into account what happened in the past. Conclusion, give statistics its importance, which deserves and no more, which in general is little.