Baseball bets

The baseball. Basic principles for the bettor.

Baseball is probably the most “latinized” American sport because of the great tradition that exists around it in Central America basically.

It is a very interesting sport, mainly because it supposes the summer relief to the traditional sports practiced in America: American football, basketball and ice hockey. This for the bettor means continuity in betting.

In my opinion, it is a much more collective game than the others indicated above and the result of a match does not depend as much on a single person as it can depend on the rest, although with a nuance that will be commented on later, when its time comes.

Getting into work, we also have to distinguish between 2 aspects when predicting a game, and these are: beating and turn shifts. In the beating shifts the final objective is to get the races, which in the end will give the victory to one or the other team. In that part of the game the state of the team with the bat is very important, basically in the last matches played. If the whole is hitting a lot, it will undoubtedly be a good sign for the forecast. The positioning of the men in the batting turns, which are pre-established before the start of the match, should be highlighted. A pair of fast men are placed as the first on the batting list with the intention of getting bases in these first innings. The best hitters are always placed in middle positions and are the best results and more homeruns are going to get. A good coordination runners-hitters can get many extra points, and this is a detail to keep in mind. If we look now at the throwing turns, here is a figure that stands out above the rest: the pitcher.

The pitchers who open the games are also established following a rotation order throughout the season. This means that there is no possibility of changing them (except injury or similar circumstance). This detail is very important, since a good pitcher is basic to win or lose a game (this I referred to earlier with the nuance). And here not only are the numbers speaking, the experience of the pitcher is a detail almost as important as the statistician. A pitcher who knows how to control the time of the game and who knows how to make the appropriate pitch at the right time is a diamond for the team. As an important aspect, and as an American sport, the number of games played in a short space of time is more important in baseball than in other sports because of the physical deployment required. Also note, as an important fact in this regard, that baseball games usually face the same teams around 3 consecutive days, so, and although each game is a world, it is not too much to look at the results harvested in the days previous to the game to predict.

Surebets

The surebets are bets in which profit is obtained regardless of what happens in the sporting event. The way to make a surebet is taking advantage of the different odds offered by bookmakers to bet on all the options of a market without the possibility of losses.

What are the surebets? The word Surebet literally means safe bet. It is also known as “arbitration”. It consists of an error in the quotes of the bookmakers that causes that when betting to all the results of a sportive encounter a secure profit is obtained. They are safe bets that give benefit regardless of how the match ends for a simple mathematical question and, therefore, lack risk.

Although it may seem similar, it is not the same as a “green book”, since it implies speculation over time and therefore a risk is being assumed.

How to identify surebets?

On the internet there are several websites and calculators dedicated to pointing out the surebets that can be produced. We can also calculate it ourselves by dividing the number 1 between the different market shares and then adding the results. If the figure that we obtain is less than 1, it is that the odds allow to make a surebet.
Example: For a soccer game we find the following odds for the 1X2 market:

1 @ 2,20
X @ 3.60
2 @ 5,00

We perform the calculation:

Benefit = (1 / 2,20) + (1 / 3,60) + (1 / 5,00) = 0,45 + 0,28 + 0,20 = 0,93

By giving a result less than 1 (0.93), we know that in this market we can make a surebet. Now we would have to calculate the probability percentages to know exactly the amount to bet on each market. For this we use the following formula:

Percentage of payments = 1 / 0.93 = 1.07 x 100 = 107%

Assigned probabilities:

1 / 2,20 = 0.45 x 107 = 48.75%
1 / 3.60 = 0.28 x 107 = 29.79%
1 / 5.00 = 0.20 x 107 = 21.45%

With these data and with an amount of € 100 for our bets, the exact amounts for each result would be:

1 = € 48.75
X = € 29.79
2 = € 21.45

Betting these amounts we would obtain a final benefit of 7.25 euros regardless of the result of the match, betting a total of 100 euros and with a profit percentage of 7.25%.

Risks of surebets

Although surebets are bets that do not involve risk mathematically, they have associated circumstances that can lead to problems. Recall that surebets or safe bets are errors of the bookmakers, which are careful not to commit and correct quickly if they occur. We review what these risks are:

The first of all is that the bookmakers do not allow this way of betting and if they detect it, they can cancel the bets and even cancel the user account.
The bookmaker can void the bet if it detects a serious error in the odds. This can leave us with a bet placed in another bookmaker that will not be covered by the voided bet.
In the sporting event there may be anomalous situations (suspensions, injuries, etc.) that lead the bookmaker to cancel the bet. It is important to consider how the bookmakers settle bets against these events.
Odds are updated very fast. In the span of time that it can take us to make two bets to get a sure bet, the odds can vary, the surebet disappearing and leaving us with a bet made.

To all these risks we must add the reality of betting making surebets. Normally a surebet leaves a very low profitability, so to take a real match you have to have respectable amounts of money in several bookmakers and put them into play assuming the risks that have just been pointed out.

Over / Under

They are the bets in which a score of a sporting event is forecast. Forecasts are to predict if the score will be above, “over”, or below, “under” a certain amount.

One of the most common bets that are usually made in football matches are what are known as Over / Under. Within this mode, the most normal is to bet on the number of goals that can be scored in a match, where you bet on a certain range of possibilities.

Over / Under Bets

Let’s give an example of Over 2.5 goals and Under 2.5 goals. Why decimals? This is used to make clear how many goals we are making the bet. That is, if we bet on Over 2.5 goals, to win the bet you have to add all the goals scored by both teams and if the result is three or more goals is won, regardless of whether they have been 1-2, 0-6 or 2-2.

Following this dynamic, it is not difficult how to bet on Under 2.5; to win the bet you would have to add all the goals of both teams at the end of the game and if the number is 2 goals or less there will be a prize. Normally in very disputed games where you usually play a decline for example, you usually bet on Under, given that it is usually the case that when a team manages to score, it usually closes ranks to avoid the counter of the opposing team and protect more the point achieved, although there are countless things that can happen and make the game a true festival of goals.

In spite of this, this type of Over / Under bets is not limited to the number of goals, there are online bookmakers that accept other types of bets such as the number of cards, corner … In other sports these bets are also accepted , such as the number of sets in tennis, fouls or free throws scored in basketball, etc.

They may look like simple bets, but here, in addition to chance, other factors are involved such as knowing the teams and players, which will serve as a small feedback on which to support us to make a bet.

Tips to bet on the market over / under goals

When analyzing the tendency of a game in terms of the possible number of goals to be scored, it is important to take into account data such as the following:

Number of goals scored by both teams: Obvious, right? In this case the advisable thing is to be based on the scoring average of each team in their last five matches and add it. Depending on the number of goals that come out, we will know if the teams have the capacity to overcome or not the line that the bookmaker proposes.

Number of goals that fit both teams: Equal or more important than the previous one, but less taken into account by the beginning bettors. The defensive capacity of the teams is also relevant for this betting market. Keep in mind that defending football is easier than attacking. In order to obtain this data we return to basing ourselves on the goals that of average have fitted both equipment in their last five parties and we add them. In this way we will also get an idea of the trend of goals in the match.
Low in the starting lineup of the teams: In the teams there are always key players in front of the goal, both when marking them and avoiding them. The loss of the goalkeeper or front striker may affect the scoring tendency of a match. Injuries or penalties must be present in our analyzes.

Double Chance

The double chance is a very interesting betting market to minimize risks, for example in our combined. However, we can find decent odds and minimize risks by covering two of the three possible outcomes.

One of the most popular betting markets is the double chance, which covers two possible outcomes and minimizes the risk of losses, although it also reduces the odds. In a double chance bet we bet on two of the three possible outcomes in the 1X2 market, so we have a 66.6% chance of winning, compared to 33.3% in conventional 1X2 bets. It is a very common market in football, although we also find it in sports such as handball or rugby, where a draw is possible.

Types of bets with double result

All the bookmakers that offer the double chance include three options to bet:

1X: we bet on the local victory or the draw. The visitor victory makes the bet lose.
X2: we bet on the visitor victory or the draw. The visitor victory makes the bet lose.
12: we bet on the local or visitor victory. The tie loses the bet.

Example

The Real Madrid-Barça Classic is a good match to bet on double chance, since the odds between both teams are usually equal. If we bet on the double chance “1X” we take the bet if Real Madrid wins or draw. Instead, betting on the double chance X2 we are worth the victory azulgrana or the distribution of points. Finally, betting on a double chance “12” we need to win some equipment to collect the bet, losing in case of a draw.

The odds in the double chance

By increasing the odds of moving the bet forward, the odds will go down considerably, especially when they include the favorite. We will probably go to odds below 1.20 or 1.10 if the match is very unbalanced. However, it is easy to find odds close to the pair (even above) for the underdog in games that are unbalanced a priori but where it would not be unreasonable to think that can start a draw or even surprise and defeat the favorite.
When to use the double chance bet

When making double-time bets it is very important to make an analysis about the real state of each team. The name, the situation in the classification or the odds of the bookmakers become something secondary, and we must analyze the trends of both teams, as they perform at home or away, injuries and penalties and other conditions such as the fact of have played or not games during the week, come from a window of selections or wardrobe problems that may affect the performance of the team.

Depending on the risk you want to take, you will use double chance bets more or less frequently. They are a very interesting market to minimize risks, whether you are a novice player or in combination bets. There is a series of situations where it is interesting to play with the double chance, since the odds are interesting and there are serious options for the bet to come out. Let’s see it with examples.

Examples of double chance bet

Example 1: Two teams are closely matched and bookmakers opt for the visitor.

Valencia-Atlético de Madrid. The victory of the Valencia is paid at € 3.40, the draw at € 3.30 and the triumph of Atletico Madrid at € 2.20. It is a very even match, between two strong teams, although the bets give as a favorite to Atlético. However, Mestalla is one of the most difficult fields of La Liga, and the double chance Valencia or draw (1X) is paid at € 1.70, a more than decent odds. If we go to the “X2”, the odds are 1.33 € and the “12” is 1.34 €.

Example 2: By name the local team is favorite, but the visitor gets better to the game.

Athletic-Leganés. The victory of the Athletic is paid to 1.66 €, the tie to 3.50 € and the triumph of the Leganés to 5.75 €. A priori, the 3 points should stay in San Mamés but Athletic arrives with doubts and some outstanding low. On the other hand, Leganés is on a roll and arrives with all available players. Would it be a surprise to at least tie? No. And the double chance “X2” draw or Leganés is paid at € 2.25. On the other hand, the “1X” is played at € 1.16 and the “12” at € 1.30.

Example 3: The visitor is clearly favorite, but he visits a difficult field and there are factors that condition the game.

Girona-Real Madrid. The victory of Girona is paid at € 8, the tie at € 5.25 and the triumph of Real Madrid at € 1.33. Girona are playing well at home, and Real Madrid comes from playing extra time in Copa del Rey and next week plays in 1/8 of Champions against PSG, so it will rotate. The double Girona opportunity or draw is paid at € 3.40, while the “X2” is priced at € 1.09 and the “12” at € 1.18.

Example 4: Minimize risks in a combined one.

Getafe-Eibar. The victory of Getafe is paid at € 2.05, the tie at € 3.25 and the triumph of Real Madrid at € 3.75. Getafe play at home, where they are winning with some ease before an Eibar that has 6 games away from home without winning. Getafe should win, but to minimize risks and not endanger our combined against an X that would not be a surprise we can include in the combined Getafe double chance or draw at € 1.28. The “X2” is paid at € 1.80 and the “12” at € 1.35.

Bankroll

It is the amount of money that is available to bet. Normally refers to the balance you have in a bookmaker or in several accounts of different bookmakers.

For those who have just arrived in the world of betting, there will surely be a lot of terms that will not be too familiar, such as the bankroll. What does it mean? Bankroll refers to the way of denominating the capital that we have destined to make the bets.

Carry a good management of the bankroll is something of great importance to make money in the long term and happens as in almost everything, a good administration is something that everyone should have, not only work or time, but money. Although it is one of the most important pillars of betting, it is often said that between 5 and 10% of people who are dedicated to sports betting, for example, are able to obtain long-term benefits, because they control all the aspects related to your bankroll and manage it in a correct way.

The bankroll is the sum of all the money you have to make bets, regardless of whether we have everything on the same or several betting websites and there are different ways to manage it, although each person has their method, but always following, or trying, following a pattern that goes more with logic and common sense than with other things.

How can we manage our bankroll?

Regardless of whether it is large or small, some essential factors for good management must be taken into account, among which we highlight:

Know what is the amount that we have to make bets.
Find a bookmaker that guarantees the investment.
Have all the necessary information before making a bet (know the team, position in the classification, check statistics, injured players, etc.).
Have a contact with the sport we want to bet on.
Choose well the kind of bet we want to make.

Although there are more things that should be taken into account, these are some of the most important and will be of great help in your first steps in the world of betting.